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NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5/9/2026HNLHNL · Round 34Gradski stadion Varazdin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin39%
×Draw27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19

NK Varazdin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
1.09
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

NK Varazdin
1.24
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
66%
NK Varazdin or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
73%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
61%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
18%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
73%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
38%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
14%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
70%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
33%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
54%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
39%
level
27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
34%

NK Varazdin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Varazdin and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb drew 1-1 in HNL on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Varazdin.