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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin — HNL 2018

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
9/20/2025HNLHNL · Round 7Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb45%
×Draw27%
NK Varazdin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.39
NK Varazdin
1.04

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 34% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 108 away

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
NK Varazdin
0.89

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
NK Varazdin
1.34

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par
NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

NK Varazdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw
72%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or NK Varazdin
73%
Draw or NK Varazdin
55%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
21%
NK Varazdin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
75%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
40%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
16%
NK Varazdin 1+ goals
65%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
28%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
61%
NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.44 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
45%
level
27%
NK Varazdin scores more
28%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat NK Varazdin 1-0 in HNL on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.