NK Varazdin 0–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

NK Varazdin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Zapresic

I. Pejić 80'

2/26/2022

First NL · Round 18Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

NK Varazdin54%

×Draw23%

Inter Zapresic22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.06

NK Varazdin

1.79

Inter Zapresic

1.06

NK Varazdin creates 69% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

2.25

creates per match

1.19

0.93

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

NK Varazdin

2.25

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

NK Varazdin

0.93

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

78%

NK Varazdin or Inter Zapresic

77%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

46%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

30%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

83%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

53%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

26%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

65%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

29%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

71%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 2.25 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + NK Varazdin defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

54%

level

23%

Inter Zapresic scores more

22%

NK Varazdin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

44'

49'

59'

62'

66'

I. Posavec← F. Brodić

68'

J. Karabatic

72'

D. Resetar

72'

D. Resetar

75'

78'

M. Topić← K. Lusavec

78'

N. Domjanić← A. Herrera

78'

M. Kanceljak← D. Magdić

80'

I. Pejić

85'

L. Belcar← T. Teklić

85'

T. Jagić← I. Postonjski

90+3'

L. Belcar

90+7'

M. Sego

90+4'

F. Soldo← L. Banovec

NK

Inter

1

6

3

33

4

20

29

16

▼

Magdić

11

▼

Banovec

24

Rešetar

23

⚽

21

30

23

8

▼

Postonjsk

18

Kolarić

9

▼

Teklić

14

▼

Lusavec

4

▼

Brodić

7

▼

Herrera

11

Šego

6

Karabatić

Manager: M. Kovačević

66'▲I. Posavec←▼F. Brodić

78'▲M. Topić←▼K. Lusavec

78'▲N. Domjanić←▼A. Herrera

85'▲L. Belcar←▼T. Teklić

85'▲T. Jagić←▼I. Postonjski

NK Varazdin substitutes

10Posavec24Topić29Domjanić19Belcar20Jagić1Zelenika5Crnčec16Vugrinec28Škaričić

Manager: B. Perković

78'▲M. Kanceljak←▼D. Magdić

90+4'▲F. Soldo←▼L. Banovec

Inter Zapresic substitutes

9Kanceljak27Soldo8Jajalo12Križanović13Vukasović15Dumančić5Mahbub30Rudonja