NK Varazdin 1–0 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

NK Varazdin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Zapresic

6/25/2020

HNL · Round 31Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

NK Varazdin52%

×Draw24%

Inter Zapresic24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.08

NK Varazdin

1.70

Inter Zapresic

1.08

NK Varazdin creates 57% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 36 away

1.09

creates per match

0.92

1.24

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.09

Inter Zapresic

0.92

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.24

Inter Zapresic

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

76%

NK Varazdin or Inter Zapresic

76%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

48%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

28%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

82%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

51%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

24%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

66%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

29%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

68%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.70

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

52%

level

24%

Inter Zapresic scores more

24%

NK Varazdin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff