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NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
11/9/2025HNLHNL · Round 13Gradski stadion Varazdin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin33%
×Draw27%
HNK Rijeka40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.15
HNK Rijeka
1.31

HNK Rijeka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 143 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
1.09
HNK Rijeka
1.39

allows per match

NK Varazdin
1.24
HNK Rijeka
1.20

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
60%
NK Varazdin or HNK Rijeka
73%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
67%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
13%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
68%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
32%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
11%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
73%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
38%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
45%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

HNK Rijeka attack 1.39 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
33%
level
27%
HNK Rijeka scores more
40%

HNK Rijeka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin beat HNK Rijeka 1-0 in HNL on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Varazdin.