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HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin — HNL 2018

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
8/24/2025HNLHNL · Round 4Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

HNK Rijeka53%
×Draw25%
NK Varazdin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.58
NK Varazdin
0.91

HNK Rijeka creates 74% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 108 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.81
NK Varazdin
0.89

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.93
NK Varazdin
1.34

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

NK Varazdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
78%
HNK Rijeka or NK Varazdin
75%
Draw or NK Varazdin
47%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
28%
NK Varazdin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
79%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
47%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
21%
NK Varazdin 1+ goals
60%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
23%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
71%
NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.81 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
53%
level
25%
NK Varazdin scores more
22%

HNK Rijeka at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

NK Varazdin beat HNK Rijeka 2-1 in HNL on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.