Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split II — First NL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
9/15/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 4Stadion Anđelko Herjavec (Varaždin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

NK Varazdin55%
×Draw22%
HNK Hajduk Split II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.91
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.15

NK Varazdin creates 66% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 42 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
2.24
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.36

allows per match

NK Varazdin
0.93
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.57

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
77%
NK Varazdin or HNK Hajduk Split II
78%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
45%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
32%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
85%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
57%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
30%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
68%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
32%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
71%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 2.24 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.91

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.36 + NK Varazdin defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
55%
level
22%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
23%

NK Varazdin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split II

NK Varazdin beat HNK Hajduk Split II 4-2 in First NL on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec (Varaždin).