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HNK Hajduk Split II vs NK Varazdin — First NL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
1 – 1
NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
3/22/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 17Stadion Poljud (Split)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II44%
×Draw26%
NK Varazdin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.48
NK Varazdin
1.20

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.78
NK Varazdin
1.18

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.22
NK Varazdin
1.18

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

NK Varazdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
69%
HNK Hajduk Split II or NK Varazdin
74%
Draw or NK Varazdin
56%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
21%
NK Varazdin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
77%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
43%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
19%
NK Varazdin 1+ goals
70%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
34%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
59%
NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + NK Varazdin defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

NK Varazdin attack 1.18 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
44%
level
26%
NK Varazdin scores more
31%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 1–1 NK Varazdin

HNK Hajduk Split II and NK Varazdin drew 1-1 in First NL on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud (Split).