Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split — HNL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
4/18/2025HNLHNL · Round 30Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin31%
×Draw27%
HNK Hajduk Split42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.09
HNK Hajduk Split
1.33

HNK Hajduk Split creates 22% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
1.09
HNK Hajduk Split
1.43

allows per match

NK Varazdin
1.24
HNK Hajduk Split
1.09

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
58%
NK Varazdin or HNK Hajduk Split
73%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split
69%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
12%
HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
66%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
30%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
10%
HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
74%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
38%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
42%
HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.43 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
31%
level
27%
HNK Hajduk Split scores more
42%

HNK Hajduk Split at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split

NK Varazdin and HNK Hajduk Split drew 1-1 in HNL on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin.