HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats

HNK Hajduk Split

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

NK Varazdin

5/3/2026

HNL · Round 33Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split53%

×Draw26%

NK Varazdin22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk SplitExpected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.89

HNK Hajduk Split

1.55

NK Varazdin

0.89

HNK Hajduk Split creates 74% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 108 away

1.76

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split

1.76

NK Varazdin

0.89

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split

0.89

NK Varazdin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw

78%

HNK Hajduk Split or NK Varazdin

74%

Draw or NK Varazdin

47%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+

27%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals

79%

HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals

46%

HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals

20%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

59%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

22%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)

71%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.55

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more

53%

level

26%

NK Varazdin scores more

22%

HNK Hajduk Split at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff