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NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
8/23/2025HNLHNL · Round 4Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo39%
×Draw27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.21

NK Slaven Belupo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
66%
NK Slaven Belupo or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
73%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
61%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
18%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
74%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
38%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
15%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
70%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
34%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
54%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
39%
level
27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
34%

NK Slaven Belupo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Slaven Belupo 1–2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 in HNL on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas in Koprivnica.