NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK Slaven Belupo

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NK Slaven Belupo

4/21/2026

HNL · Round 31Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb49%

×Draw25%

NK Slaven Belupo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.58

NK Slaven Belupo

1.08

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 46% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.44

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.44

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.19

NK Slaven Belupo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

74%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or NK Slaven Belupo

75%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

51%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

25%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

79%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

47%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

21%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

66%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

29%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

65%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.44 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

49%

level

25%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

26%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff