NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

1 – 1

Inter Zapresic

5/23/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo66%

×Draw17%

Inter Zapresic17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.30

NK Slaven Belupo

2.67

Inter Zapresic

1.30

NK Slaven Belupo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

2.33

Inter Zapresic

1.00

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.60

Inter Zapresic

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

83%

NK Slaven Belupo or Inter Zapresic

83%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

34%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

45%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

93%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

74%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

49%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

73%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

37%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

80%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 2.33 + Inter Zapresic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Inter Zapresic attack 1.00 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

66%

level

17%

Inter Zapresic scores more

17%

NK Slaven Belupo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff