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Inter Zapresic vs NK Slaven Belupo — HNL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
9/14/2019HNLHNL · Round 8Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic35%
×Draw25%
NK Slaven Belupo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.40
NK Slaven Belupo
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.08
NK Slaven Belupo
0.97

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
2.03
NK Slaven Belupo
1.72

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
60%
Inter Zapresic or NK Slaven Belupo
75%
Draw or NK Slaven Belupo
65%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
16%
NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
75%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
41%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
17%
NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
78%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
44%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
47%
NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
35%
level
25%
NK Slaven Belupo scores more
40%

NK Slaven Belupo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Inter Zapresic 3–1 NK Slaven Belupo

Inter Zapresic beat NK Slaven Belupo 3-1 in HNL on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.