NK Slaven Belupo 2–2 HNK Hajduk Split

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

HNK Hajduk Split

4/17/2026

HNL · Round 30Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo31%

×Draw27%

HNK Hajduk Split42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.35

NK Slaven Belupo

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split

1.35

HNK Hajduk Split creates 22% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.14

creates per match

1.43

1.28

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.14

HNK Hajduk Split

1.43

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.28

HNK Hajduk Split

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

58%

NK Slaven Belupo or HNK Hajduk Split

73%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split

69%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

12%

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

67%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

30%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

10%

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals

74%

HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals

39%

HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

42%

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.43 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

31%

level

27%

HNK Hajduk Split scores more

42%

HNK Hajduk Split at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff