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HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
8/17/2025HNLHNL · Round 3Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split56%
×Draw24%
NK Slaven Belupo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.74
NK Slaven Belupo
0.93

HNK Hajduk Split creates 87% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.76
NK Slaven Belupo
0.97

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
NK Slaven Belupo
1.72

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par
NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
80%
HNK Hajduk Split or NK Slaven Belupo
76%
Draw or NK Slaven Belupo
44%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
32%
NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
82%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
52%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
25%
NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
61%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
24%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
74%
NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.74

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
56%
level
24%
NK Slaven Belupo scores more
20%

HNK Hajduk Split at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: HNK Hajduk Split 3–0 NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Hajduk Split beat NK Slaven Belupo 3-0 in HNL on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.