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NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
5/10/2026HNLHNL · Round 34Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Osijek56%
×Draw25%
Istra 196119%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.58
Istra 1961
0.81

NK Osijek creates 95% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
Istra 1961
0.81

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
Istra 1961
1.69

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

Istra 1961 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
81%
NK Osijek or Istra 1961
75%
Draw or Istra 1961
44%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
30%
Istra 1961 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
79%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
47%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
21%
Istra 1961 1+ goals
56%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
19%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
74%
Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NK Osijek scores more
56%
level
25%
Istra 1961 scores more
19%

NK Osijek at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Osijek 0–1 Istra 1961

Istra 1961 beat NK Osijek 1-0 in HNL on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Opus Arena in Osijek.