Istra 1961 0–1 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

Istra 1961

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NK Osijek

3/6/2026

HNL · Round 25Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Istra 196134%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.31

Istra 1961

1.20

NK Osijek

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.11

creates per match

1.29

1.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.11

NK Osijek

1.29

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.33

NK Osijek

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par

NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

61%

Istra 1961 or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

66%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

14%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

70%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

34%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

12%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

73%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

38%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

46%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

34%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

39%

NK Osijek at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff