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NK Osijek II vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sesvete
Sesvete
9/2/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 2Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

NK Osijek II44%
×Draw28%
Sesvete28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.31
Sesvete
0.97

NK Osijek II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 103 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.37
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

NK Osijek II
0.83
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
72%
NK Osijek II or Sesvete
72%
Draw or Sesvete
56%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
20%
Sesvete wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
73%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
38%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
14%
Sesvete 1+ goals
62%
Sesvete 2+ goals
25%
Sesvete 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
62%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sesvete attack 1.11 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
44%
level
28%
Sesvete scores more
28%

NK Osijek II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: NK Osijek II 1–0 Sesvete

NK Osijek II beat Sesvete 1-0 in First NL on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek).