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NK Osijek II vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
D. Francekovic 59'
S. Behram 37'
I. Baraban 30'
D. Lopa 28'
5/20/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 28Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II29%
×Draw24%
Mladost Ždralovi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.27
Mladost Ždralovi
1.69

Mladost Ždralovi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
53%
NK Osijek II or Mladost Ždralovi
76%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
71%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
12%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
36%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
82%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
50%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
38%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
29%
level
24%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
47%

Mladost Ždralovi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
D. Lopa
30'
I. Baraban
37'
S. Behram
59'
D. Francekovic
63'
A. Ivandic
63'
A. Ivandic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek II vs Mladost Ždralovi

Mladost Ždralovi beat NK Osijek II 4-0 in Second NL on May 20, 2023.

Goals: D. Lopa (28'), I. Baraban (30'), S. Behram (37'), D. Francekovic (59').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.