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Mladost Ždralovi vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
I. Baraban 45', 41'
I. Jajalo 40'
11/12/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 13Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi70%
×Draw19%
NK Osijek II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
2.17
NK Osijek II
0.74

Mladost Ždralovi creates 193% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
89%
Mladost Ždralovi or NK Osijek II
81%
Draw or NK Osijek II
30%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
46%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
89%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
64%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
36%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
52%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
17%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
86%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
70%
level
19%
NK Osijek II scores more
11%

Mladost Ždralovi at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
I. Jajalo
41'
I. Baraban
45'
I. Baraban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs NK Osijek II

Mladost Ždralovi beat NK Osijek II 3-0 in Second NL on November 12, 2022.

Goals: I. Jajalo (40'), I. Baraban (41', 45').

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.