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NK Osijek II vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Marsonia
Marsonia
A. Ivandic 53'
L. Anic 67'
S. Mahmutovic 45+1', 2'
4/22/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 24Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II45%
×Draw22%
Marsonia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.92
Marsonia
1.62

NK Osijek II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
67%
NK Osijek II or Marsonia
78%
Draw or Marsonia
55%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
25%
Marsonia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
85%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
57%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
30%
Marsonia 1+ goals
80%
Marsonia 2+ goals
48%
Marsonia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
58%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Marsonia attack 1.36 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
45%
level
22%
Marsonia scores more
33%

NK Osijek II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. Mahmutovic
45+1'
S. Mahmutovic
53'
A. Ivandic
67'
L. Anic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NK Osijek II 1 – 3 Marsonia

Marsonia beat NK Osijek II 3-1 in Second NL on April 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Mahmutovic (2', 45+1'), A. Ivandic (53'), L. Anic (67').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.