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Marsonia vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
E. Huseinbasic 49'
S. Mahmutovic 37' (pen)
D. Polanec 83'
I. Ivic 74'
10/15/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 9ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marsonia56%
×Draw22%
NK Osijek II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.99
NK Osijek II
1.18

Marsonia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
78%
Marsonia or NK Osijek II
78%
Draw or NK Osijek II
44%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
33%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
86%
Marsonia 2+ goals
59%
Marsonia 3+ goals
32%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
69%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
33%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
71%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Marsonia scores more
56%
level
22%
NK Osijek II scores more
22%

Marsonia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
S. MahmutovicPenalty
49'
E. Huseinbasic
70'
B. Kovacevic
74'
I. Ivic
83'
D. Polanec
87'
A. Ivandic
87'
K. Fucak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Marsonia 2–2 NK Osijek II

Marsonia and NK Osijek II drew 2-2 in Second NL on October 15, 2022.

Goals: S. Mahmutovic (37' pen), E. Huseinbasic (49'), I. Ivic (74'), D. Polanec (83').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.