NK Osijek II 4–2 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

NK Osijek II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Jadran Poreč

F. Lisnic 64'

T. Polic 61'

N. Omerovic 51', 25'

Unknown 63', 11'

11/27/2022

Second NL · Round 15Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II53%

×Draw21%

Jadran Poreč26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Osijek IIExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.44

NK Osijek II

2.10

Jadran Poreč

1.44

NK Osijek II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.87

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

NK Osijek II

1.47

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

NK Osijek II

1.87

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw

74%

NK Osijek II or Jadran Poreč

79%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

47%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

31%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

88%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

62%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

35%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

76%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

42%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

67%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NK Osijek II scores more

53%

level

21%

Jadran Poreč scores more

26%

NK Osijek II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

25'

N. Omerovic

51'

N. Omerovic

61'

T. Polic

63'

64'

F. Lisnic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff