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Jadran Poreč vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
I. Lepinjica 46'
M. Ivetic 43', 9'
6/3/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 30Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jadran Poreč57%
×Draw22%
NK Osijek II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.94
NK Osijek II
1.11

Jadran Poreč creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
79%
Jadran Poreč or NK Osijek II
78%
Draw or NK Osijek II
43%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
33%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
86%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
58%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
30%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
67%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
30%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
72%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
57%
level
22%
NK Osijek II scores more
21%

Jadran Poreč at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Ivetic
43'
M. Ivetic
46'
I. Lepinjica

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran Poreč 3–0 NK Osijek II

Jadran Poreč beat NK Osijek II 3-0 in Second NL on June 3, 2023.

Goals: M. Ivetic (9', 43'), I. Lepinjica (46').

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.