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NK Osijek II vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
Unknown 45+2'
Unknown 18'
10/8/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II28%
×Draw25%
Jadran LP47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.20
Jadran LP
1.63

Jadran LP creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
53%
NK Osijek II or Jadran LP
75%
Draw or Jadran LP
72%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
11%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
70%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
34%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
12%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
80%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
48%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
37%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
28%
level
25%
Jadran LP scores more
47%

Jadran LP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
45+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: NK Osijek II 1–1 Jadran LP

NK Osijek II and Jadran LP drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 8, 2022.

Goals: ? (18', 45+2').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.