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Jadran LP vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
N. Maric 84', 40'
L. Petrovic 24'
T. Polic 90'
4/15/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 23Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jadran LP70%
×Draw18%
NK Osijek II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.29
NK Osijek II
0.85

Jadran LP creates 169% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
88%
Jadran LP or NK Osijek II
82%
Draw or NK Osijek II
30%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
46%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
90%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
66%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
40%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
57%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
21%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
85%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.29

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jadran LP scores more
70%
level
18%
NK Osijek II scores more
12%

Jadran LP at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
L. Petrovic
40'
N. Maric
84'
N. Maric
90'
T. Polic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran LP 3–1 NK Osijek II

Jadran LP beat NK Osijek II 3-1 in Second NL on April 15, 2023.

Goals: L. Petrovic (24'), N. Maric (40', 84'), T. Polic (90').

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.