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NK Osijek II vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
4/2/2021First NLFirst NL · Round 24Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

NK Osijek II45%
×Draw27%
Inter Zapresic28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.35
Inter Zapresic
1.01

NK Osijek II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.37
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

NK Osijek II
0.83
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
72%
NK Osijek II or Inter Zapresic
73%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
55%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
21%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
74%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
39%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
15%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
64%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
27%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
61%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
45%
level
27%
Inter Zapresic scores more
28%

NK Osijek II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek II vs Inter Zapresic

Inter Zapresic beat NK Osijek II 2-1 in First NL on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.