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Inter Zapresic vs NK Osijek II — First NL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
9/26/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 7Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic48%
×Draw27%
NK Osijek II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.42
NK Osijek II
0.93

Inter Zapresic creates 53% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.41
NK Osijek II
1.02

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
0.84
NK Osijek II
1.42

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
75%
Inter Zapresic or NK Osijek II
73%
Draw or NK Osijek II
52%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
24%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
76%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
41%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
17%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
61%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
24%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
66%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + NK Osijek II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

NK Osijek II attack 1.02 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
48%
level
27%
NK Osijek II scores more
25%

Inter Zapresic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Zapresic vs NK Osijek II

NK Osijek II beat Inter Zapresic 1-0 in First NL on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.