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NK Osijek II vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
3 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
8/20/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 1Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II44%
×Draw24%
Grobničan Čavle32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.70
Grobničan Čavle
1.43

NK Osijek II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
68%
NK Osijek II or Grobničan Čavle
76%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
56%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
23%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
82%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
51%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
24%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
76%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
42%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
58%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
44%
level
24%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
32%

NK Osijek II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: NK Osijek II 3–1 Grobničan Čavle

NK Osijek II beat Grobničan Čavle 3-1 in Second NL on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.