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Grobničan Čavle vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
Unknown 10'
2/24/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 16Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grobničan Čavle61%
×Draw21%
NK Osijek II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
2.09
NK Osijek II
1.07

Grobničan Čavle creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
81%
Grobničan Čavle or NK Osijek II
79%
Draw or NK Osijek II
39%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
37%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
88%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
62%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
34%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
66%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
29%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
76%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
61%
level
21%
NK Osijek II scores more
19%

Grobničan Čavle at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
90+2'
M. Baresic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Grobničan Čavle 1–0 NK Osijek II

Grobničan Čavle beat NK Osijek II 1-0 in Second NL on February 24, 2023.

Goals: ? (10').

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.