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NK Osijek II vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
M. Gazic 90+3', 75'
F. Radovanovic 58'
5/8/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 26Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II49%
×Draw22%
Belišće29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.94
Belišće
1.47

NK Osijek II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Belišće
2.40

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
71%
NK Osijek II or Belišće
78%
Draw or Belišće
51%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
27%
Belišće wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
86%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
58%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
30%
Belišće 1+ goals
77%
Belišće 2+ goals
43%
Belišće 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
62%
Belišće (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Belišće attack 1.07 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
49%
level
22%
Belišće scores more
29%

NK Osijek II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
F. Radovanovic
75'
M. Gazic
90+3'
M. Gazic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: NK Osijek II 0–3 Belišće

Belišće beat NK Osijek II 3-0 in Second NL on May 8, 2023.

Goals: F. Radovanovic (58'), M. Gazic (75', 90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.