Belišće 1–0 NK Osijek II: Result & Stats

Belišće

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NK Osijek II

M. Gazic 43'

10/28/2022

Second NL · Round 11Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Belišće49%

×Draw24%

NK Osijek II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelišćeExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.19

Belišće

1.67

NK Osijek II

1.19

Belišće creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

0.67

1.70

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Belišće

0.93

NK Osijek II

0.67

allows per match

Belišće

1.70

NK Osijek II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

NK Osijek II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Belišće or draw

73%

Belišće or NK Osijek II

76%

Draw or NK Osijek II

51%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+

26%

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals

81%

Belišće 2+ goals

50%

Belišće 3+ goals

23%

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

70%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

33%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)

64%

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Belišće scores more

49%

level

24%

NK Osijek II scores more

27%

Belišće at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

M. Gazic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff