NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

HNK Gorica

2/6/2026

HNL · Round 21Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb44%

×Draw26%

HNK Gorica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.44

HNK Gorica

1.14

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 26% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.44

creates per match

1.08

1.19

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.44

HNK Gorica

1.08

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.19

HNK Gorica

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

70%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or HNK Gorica

74%

Draw or HNK Gorica

56%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

21%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

76%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

42%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

18%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

68%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

32%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

59%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.44 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

44%

level

26%

HNK Gorica scores more

30%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff