HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: Result & Stats

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4/17/2026

HNL · Round 30Gradski stadion Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Gorica42%

×Draw26%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

HNK Gorica

1.42

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.21

HNK Gorica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.28

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.31

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.15

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.28

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

68%

HNK Gorica or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

74%

Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

58%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

20%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

76%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

41%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

17%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

70%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

34%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

57%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.31 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + HNK Gorica defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

42%

level

26%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

32%

HNK Gorica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff