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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
D. Vukovic 29'
A. Smakaj 22'
1/10/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportski Centar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb42%
×Draw25%
HNK Gorica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.48
HNK Gorica
1.26

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.85
HNK Gorica
1.67

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.85
HNK Gorica
1.11

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw
68%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or HNK Gorica
75%
Draw or HNK Gorica
58%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
21%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
77%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
43%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
19%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
72%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
36%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
57%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.85 + HNK Gorica defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

HNK Gorica attack 1.67 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
42%
level
25%
HNK Gorica scores more
32%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Smakaj
29'
D. Vukovic
NK
HNK
Nikica Jelavić
Manager: Nikica Jelavić
Mario Carević
Manager: Mario Carević

Friendlies Clubs: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 HNK Gorica

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2025.

Goals: A. Smakaj (22'), D. Vukovic (29').

The match was played at Sportski Centar Arena.