NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HNK Gorica

M. Leš 29' (OG)

J. Mitrović 73'

4/6/2024

HNL · Round 29Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb40%

×Draw26%

HNK Gorica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.40

HNK Gorica

1.25

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 28 away

1.16

creates per match

1.03

1.46

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.16

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.46

HNK Gorica

1.63

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.19scores more

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

66%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or HNK Gorica

74%

Draw or HNK Gorica

60%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

19%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

75%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

41%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

17%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

71%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

36%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

55%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 20 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.16 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

40%

level

26%

HNK Gorica scores more

34%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Smakaj

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

M. LešOwn goal

43'

Marin Šotiček

46'

M. Vranjković← M. Leovac

46'

N. Vujnović← A. Jurič

46'

V. Majstorović← G. Rukavina

56'

F. Krivak← F. Fetai

59'

K. Krizmanić← A. Munksgaard

59'

L. Kapulica← J. Pršir

64'

Andrej Lazarov

73'

J. Mitrović↳ L. Kapulica

75'

Mateo Leš

86'

Valentino Majstorović

87'

Valentino Majstorović

87'

Valentino Majstorović

90+3'

Marko Vranjković

90+2'

V. Bubanja← I. Canjuga

90+4'

M. Matković← J. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKHNK

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots7

9Corners2

12Fouls23

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked0

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

505Total Passes322

405Accurate Passes229

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls23

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Gorica drew 1-1 in HNL on April 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Leš (29' o.g.), J. Mitrović (73').

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica