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NK Domzale vs Maribor — 1. SNL 2026

NK Domzale
NK Domzale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maribor
Maribor
4/6/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 28Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

NK Domzale32%
×Draw26%
Maribor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Domzale
1.25
Maribor
1.46

Maribor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 125 away

creates per match

NK Domzale
1.30
Maribor
1.53

allows per match

NK Domzale
1.39
Maribor
1.19

finishing

NK Domzale+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Domzale ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Domzale or draw
58%
NK Domzale or Maribor
74%
Draw or Maribor
68%

Winning margin

NK Domzale wins by 2+
14%
Maribor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

NK Domzale 1+ goals
71%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
36%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
13%
Maribor 1+ goals
77%
Maribor 2+ goals
43%
Maribor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

NK Domzale (draw refunded)
44%
Maribor (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Domzale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Domzale attack 1.30 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maribor attack 1.53 + NK Domzale defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Domzale scores more
32%
level
26%
Maribor scores more
42%

Maribor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Domzale vs Maribor

NK Domzale beat Maribor 1-0 in 1. SNL on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.