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Maribor vs NK Domzale — 1. SNL 2026

Maribor
Maribor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
2/1/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 19Ljudski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Maribor54%
×Draw23%
NK Domzale23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maribor
1.86
NK Domzale
1.13

Maribor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 118 away

creates per match

Maribor
2.06
NK Domzale
1.33

allows per match

Maribor
0.93
NK Domzale
1.67

finishing

Maribor+0.00on par
NK Domzale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maribor ↓

NK Domzale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maribor or draw
77%
Maribor or NK Domzale
77%
Draw or NK Domzale
46%

Winning margin

Maribor wins by 2+
31%
NK Domzale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maribor 1+ goals
84%
Maribor 2+ goals
55%
Maribor 3+ goals
28%
NK Domzale 1+ goals
68%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
31%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maribor (draw refunded)
70%
NK Domzale (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maribor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

NK Domzale away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maribor attack 2.06 + NK Domzale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

NK Domzale attack 1.33 + Maribor defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maribor scores more
54%
level
23%
NK Domzale scores more
23%

Maribor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maribor vs NK Domzale

Maribor beat NK Domzale 2-1 in 1. SNL on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ljudski vrt in Maribor.