Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Njardvik vs Keflavik — 1. Deild 2026

Njardvik
Njardvik
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Keflavik
Keflavikadvanced
S. Ljubicic 90+3', 62'
M. Mudrazija 48'
9/21/20251. Deild1. Deild · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsJBÓ völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Njardvik47%
×Draw23%
Keflavik30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Njardvik
1.86
Keflavik
1.46

Njardvik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

creates per match

Njardvik
2.00
Keflavik
1.67

allows per match

Njardvik
1.25
Keflavik
1.72

finishing

Njardvik+0.00on par
Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Njardvik ↓

Keflavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Njardvik or draw
70%
Njardvik or Keflavik
77%
Draw or Keflavik
53%

Winning margin

Njardvik wins by 2+
26%
Keflavik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Njardvik 1+ goals
84%
Njardvik 2+ goals
55%
Njardvik 3+ goals
28%
Keflavik 1+ goals
77%
Keflavik 2+ goals
43%
Keflavik 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Njardvik (draw refunded)
61%
Keflavik (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Njardvik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Njardvik attack 2.00 + Keflavik defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Keflavik attack 1.67 + Njardvik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Njardvik scores more
47%
level
23%
Keflavik scores more
30%

Njardvik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
D. Radic
42'
E. Ragnarsson
48'
M. Mudrazija
62'
S. Ljubicic
64'
S. Magnusson
66'
A. Al Mosawe← F. Gudnason
72'
K. Hogg← K. Hogg
76'
V. Valgeirsson
81'
M. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul
81'
E. Bjarnason← F. Elvarsson
83'
V. Johannsson← V. Johannsson
84'
S. Olafsson
88'
M. Mudrazija← M. Mudrazija
90+2'
Joao Ananias
90+2'
S. Ljubicic
90+3'
S. Ljubicic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Njardvik 0–3 Keflavik

Keflavik beat Njardvik 3-0 in 1. Deild on September 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Mudrazija (48'), S. Ljubicic (62', 90+3').

The match was played at JBÓ völlurinn in Njarðvík, Reykjanesbær.