Keflavik 2–1 Njardvik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Keflavik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Njardvik

M. Mudrazija 74'

E. Ragnarsson 70'

O. Diouck 90+4'

9/6/2025

1. Deild · Round 21HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Keflavik53%

×Draw21%

Njardvik26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchNjardvik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.42

Keflavik

2.12

Njardvik

1.42

Keflavik creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

2.75

creates per match

1.52

1.31

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Keflavik

2.75

Njardvik

1.52

allows per match

Keflavik

1.31

Njardvik

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Njardvik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

74%

Keflavik or Njardvik

79%

Draw or Njardvik

47%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

32%

Njardvik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

88%

Keflavik 2+ goals

62%

Keflavik 3+ goals

35%

Njardvik 1+ goals

76%

Njardvik 2+ goals

41%

Njardvik 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

68%

Njardvik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Njardvik away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.75 + Njardvik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.12

Njardvik attack 1.52 + Keflavik defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Keflavik scores more

53%

level

21%

Njardvik scores more

26%

Keflavik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

E. Bjarnason← E. Bjarnason

62'

K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson

64'

M. Mudrazija

70'

E. Ragnarsson

74'

M. Mudrazija

75'

K. Hogg← K. Hogg

75'

A. Al Mosawe← A. Al Mosawe

75'

V. Gautason← V. Gautason

78'

A. Magnusson

79'

O. Diouck

84'

F. Elvarsson

85'

M. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul

90+4'

O. Diouck

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff