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Njardvik vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

Njardvik
Njardvik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fylkir
Fylkir
5/8/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Njardvik42%
×Draw22%
Fylkir36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Njardvik
1.81
Fylkir
1.65

Njardvik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Njardvik
2.09
Fylkir
2.00

allows per match

Njardvik
1.30
Fylkir
1.54

finishing

Njardvik+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Njardvik ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Njardvik or draw
64%
Njardvik or Fylkir
78%
Draw or Fylkir
58%

Winning margin

Njardvik wins by 2+
22%
Fylkir wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Njardvik 1+ goals
84%
Njardvik 2+ goals
54%
Njardvik 3+ goals
27%
Fylkir 1+ goals
81%
Fylkir 2+ goals
49%
Fylkir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Njardvik (draw refunded)
54%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Njardvik at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Njardvik attack 2.09 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fylkir attack 2.00 + Njardvik defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Njardvik scores more
42%
level
22%
Fylkir scores more
36%

Njardvik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Njardvik vs Fylkir

Njardvik beat Fylkir 2-0 in 1. Deild on May 8, 2026.