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Fylkir vs Njardvik — League #168 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Njardvik
Njardvik
G. Tyrfingsson 65'
E. Wohler 51', 2'
3/5/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 5Würth völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fylkir79%
×Draw14%
Njardvik7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.70
Njardvik
0.70

Fylkir creates 286% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fylkir
3.00
Njardvik
1.00

allows per match

Fylkir
0.40
Njardvik
2.40

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Njardvik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
93%
Fylkir or Njardvik
86%
Draw or Njardvik
21%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
58%
Njardvik wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
93%
Fylkir 2+ goals
75%
Fylkir 3+ goals
50%
Njardvik 1+ goals
50%
Njardvik 2+ goals
16%
Njardvik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
92%
Njardvik (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Njardvik away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 3.00 + Njardvik defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Njardvik attack 1.00 + Fylkir defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fylkir scores more
79%
level
14%
Njardvik scores more
7%

Fylkir at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
E. Wohler
21'
T. Vikingsson
28'
T. Jonsson
38'
S. Markusson
51'
E. Wohler
65'
G. Tyrfingsson
66'
E. Asmundsson
69'
E. Asmundsson← J. Baldursson
75'
M. Deverlan
79'
E. Wohler← N. Olafsson
79'
A. Haraldsson← A. Haraldsson
82'
O. Segatta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #168: Fylkir 3–0 Njardvik

Fylkir beat Njardvik 3-0 in League #168 on March 5, 2025.

Goals: E. Wohler (2', 51'), G. Tyrfingsson (65').

The match was played at Würth völlurinn in Reykjavík.