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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2026

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Preview
00:00
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
8/8/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSports Illustrated Stadium
Big match
38%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
33%29%38%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W33%
×Draw29%
San Diego Wave W38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.08
San Diego Wave W
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 57 away

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.08
San Diego Wave W
1.28

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.05
San Diego Wave W
1.07

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw
62%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or San Diego Wave W
71%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
67%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
13%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
66%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
29%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
10%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
69%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
33%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
47%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
33%
level
29%
San Diego Wave W scores more
38%

San Diego Wave W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W raise their game against the top half — 42% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower
  • 69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • San Diego Wave W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 31% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
52%Possession56%
77%Pass accuracy81%
11.5ShotsBiggest gap10.7
2.64xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NJ/NY Gotham FC WSan Diego Wave W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1
Draws
7
San Diego Wave W
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 30%
0–22–00–12–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLW
W
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NJ/NY Gotham FC W face San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with NJ/NY Gotham FC W hosting San Diego Wave W. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W host San Diego Wave W at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.