NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2–1 San Diego Wave W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego Wave W

M. Bell 90+8'

R. Lavelle 45+3'

M. Jones 48'

6/19/2024

NWSL Women · Round 10Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W36%

×Draw29%

San Diego Wave W35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NJ/NY Gotham FC WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.12

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.15

San Diego Wave W

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.16

creates per match

1.52

0.72

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.16

San Diego Wave W

1.52

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

0.72

San Diego Wave W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw

65%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or San Diego Wave W

71%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

64%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

15%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

68%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

32%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

11%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

67%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

31%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

51%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.16 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Diego Wave W attack 1.52 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

36%

level

29%

San Diego Wave W scores more

35%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Dunn

NJ/NY Gotham FC W · M

7.9

Match Events

45+3'

R. Lavelle↳ K. Stengel

46'

N. Martin← D. Sheehan

46'

M. Doniak← M. Sánchez

46'

S. McCaskill← D. Colaprico

46'

A. Morgan← K. Carusa

48'

M. Jones

60'

J. Nighswonger← K. Stengel

60'

M. Zerboni← R. Lavelle

63'

Sam Hiatt

72'

M. Freeman← T. Torres

72'

K. Torpey← M. Jones

78'

S. Jakobsson← J. Shaw

79'

Mandy Freeman

81'

Mandy FreemanCard reviewed

84'

M. Bell← Bruninha

90+13'

Yazmeen Ryan

90+6'

Kaitlyn Torpey

90+8'

M. Bell↳ J. Nighswonger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NJ/NYSan

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots3

2Corners1

15Fouls4

Shots

14Total Shots3

9On Target1

2Off Target0

3Blocked2

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box0

Passing

59%Possession41%

510Total Passes358

427Accurate Passes271

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls4

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1