NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC W36%
San Diego Wave W35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 25 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches
San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.16 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15
San Diego Wave W attack 1.52 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Kansas City W
Washington Spirit W
Portland Thorns W
Orlando Pride W
Seattle Reign FCSan Diego Wave W
Racing Louisville WNJ/NY Gotham FC W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Angel City W
Utah Royals W
Bay FC
Chicago Red Stars WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
NJ/NY Gotham FC W host San Diego Wave W on Friday, 16 May 2025 at 23:30. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2025/2026 season.
NWSL Women: NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0–1 San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W beat NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1-0 in NWSL Women on May 16, 2025.
Goals: K. Ascanio (30').
San Diego Wave W controlled possession (62%) and registered 6 shots to 10.
The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison.