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Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural — First League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Preview
15:00
Ural
Ural
5/22/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Sovcombank Arena
Big match
43%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
43%28%29%

Ural win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod43%
×Draw28%
Ural29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.27
Ural
0.99

Nizhny Novgorod creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
Ural
1.21

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Ural
1.15

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
71%
Nizhny Novgorod or Ural
72%
Draw or Ural
57%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
19%
Ural wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
72%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
36%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
14%
Ural 1+ goals
63%
Ural 2+ goals
26%
Ural 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
60%
Ural (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ural attack 1.21 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
43%
level
28%
Ural scores more
29%

Nizhny Novgorod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals
  • Nizhny Novgorod sit 2, Ural 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Novgorod
WLWW
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nizhny Novgorod host Ural

May 22, 2027: Nizhny Novgorod take on Ural in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nizhny Novgorod host Ural at Sovcombank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.