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Nizhny Novgorod vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
5/25/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 38Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod51%
×Draw26%
Mordovia Saransk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.50
Mordovia Saransk
0.89

Nizhny Novgorod creates 69% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
78%
Nizhny Novgorod or Mordovia Saransk
74%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
49%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
26%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
78%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
44%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
19%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
59%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
22%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
70%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
51%
level
26%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
22%

Nizhny Novgorod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Mordovia Saransk

Nizhny Novgorod beat Mordovia Saransk 3-1 in First League on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.