Mordovia Saransk 2–2 Nizhny Novgorod

Mordovia Saransk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

7/17/2018

First League · Round 1Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk26%

×Draw30%

Nizhny Novgorod44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mordovia SaranskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.21

Mordovia Saransk

0.85

Nizhny Novgorod

1.21

Nizhny Novgorod creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

0.81

creates per match

1.19

1.24

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk

0.81

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk

1.24

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw

56%

Mordovia Saransk or Nizhny Novgorod

70%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

74%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

8%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

57%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

21%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

5%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

70%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

34%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

37%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more

26%

level

30%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

44%

Nizhny Novgorod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff