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Nizhny Novgorod vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2026

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
8/8/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod51%
×Draw27%
Irtysh Omsk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.42
Irtysh Omsk
0.81

Nizhny Novgorod creates 75% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.41
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
79%
Nizhny Novgorod or Irtysh Omsk
73%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
49%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
25%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
76%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
41%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
17%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
56%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
19%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
71%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.41 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
51%
level
27%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
21%

Nizhny Novgorod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Irtysh Omsk

Nizhny Novgorod beat Irtysh Omsk 2-0 in First League on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.